As the league phase enters its second half, all eight automatic qualification spots are currently occupied by pre-tournament favourites. Bayern Munich and Arsenal lead the way with four wins each — and they face off at the Emirates on Wednesday night. A few giants are still outside the top eight, but as with last season, the standings remain extremely tight: just two points separate defending champions PSG in fifth from Atalanta in 16th.
Using The Athletic’s projections, powered by Opta, here are five matches that could significantly reshape the table.
Chelsea vs Barcelona (Tuesday, 9pm CET)
Both sides began the campaign projected for 15 points and both sit on seven after four games — technically on schedule, even if performances suggest otherwise.
Barcelona’s chaotic 3-3 draw at Club Brugge highlighted issues in their forward press and defensive line. Chelsea, meanwhile, blew a 1-0 lead at Qarabag and settled for a 2-2 draw, managing only four shots on target.
Barça’s top-eight odds have fallen to 45 per cent, and their title chances have dropped to four per cent — less than half their pre-tournament projection. Chelsea also stand at four per cent to win it all, with a 30 per cent chance of qualifying directly for the round of 16. A defeat at Stamford Bridge would be a major setback, especially with tough trips to Atalanta and Napoli still to come.
Both teams, however, will take heart from solid domestic outings: Barcelona eased to a 4-0 victory over Athletic Club in their Camp Nou return, while Chelsea beat Burnley 2-0 to move second in the Premier League.
Chelsea remaining fixtures: Atalanta (A), Pafos (H), Napoli (A)
Barcelona remaining fixtures: Eintracht Frankfurt (H), Slavia Prague (A), Copenhagen (H)
Napoli vs Qarabag (Tuesday, 9pm CET)
Qarabag have been one of the surprise packages of the competition. Given the 12th-toughest schedule by Opta, they’ve delivered wins at Benfica and at home to Copenhagen, reducing their elimination odds from 87 to 25 per cent. Their projected points tally has climbed from six to 11.
Napoli, meanwhile, have taken only four points from four games but still have a 76 per cent chance of reaching the knockout play-offs. Losses to Manchester City were understandable; the 6-2 defeat to PSV far less so.
A win here would put Antonio Conte’s side back on track ahead of matches against Benfica and Copenhagen.
Napoli remaining fixtures: Benfica (A), Copenhagen (H), Chelsea (H)
Qarabag remaining fixtures: Ajax (H), Eintracht Frankfurt (H), Liverpool (A)
Arsenal vs Bayern Munich (Wednesday, 9pm CET)
At least one perfect record will fall in north London.
Arsenal sit second on goal difference but top The Athletic’s projected points model with 20 points — one more than Bayern. Both sides are near-certainties for a top-eight finish, with Arsenal currently projected as favourites to win the competition (24 per cent) after their 3-0 victory over Slavia Prague.
Bayern, meanwhile, impressed with a 2-1 win away at PSG despite playing the second half with 10 men after Luis Díaz’s red card. Their title chances jumped from nine to 14 per cent — now second only to Arsenal — thanks to a disciplined defensive display.
Both clubs enjoyed emphatic domestic wins at the weekend. Eberechi Eze’s hat-trick led Arsenal to a 4-1 derby victory over Tottenham, while Bayern had five different scorers in a 6-2 win over Freiburg.
Arsenal remaining fixtures: Club Brugge (A), Inter (A), Kairat (H)
Bayern remaining fixtures: Sporting CP (H), Union Saint-Gilloise (H), PSV (A)
PSG vs Tottenham (Wednesday, 9pm CET)
PSG’s home loss to Bayern underlined the challenge of defending their European crown, though they remain leading contenders with a 10 per cent chance of retaining the title. Their top-eight projection (73 per cent) is the fifth-highest in the competition, helped by a favourable final run of fixtures.
Tottenham, meanwhile, sit 10th with only a 28 per cent chance of a top-eight finish. Sunday’s drubbing at Arsenal leaves them little time to regroup.
The sides last met in August’s European Super Cup, where Spurs led 2-0 until the 85th minute. Three months on, Tottenham’s attacking threat has evaporated, producing just 0.2 expected goals across 180 minutes against Chelsea and Arsenal.
PSG remaining fixtures: Athletic Club (A), Sporting CP (A), Newcastle (H)
Tottenham remaining fixtures: Slavia Prague (H), Borussia Dortmund (H), Eintracht Frankfurt (A)
Atletico Madrid vs Inter (Wednesday, 9pm CET)
Inter join Arsenal and Bayern as the third perfect team through four matchweeks — mirroring their blistering start to the 2024–25 campaign. They also stand to benefit if Arsenal and Bayern take points off one another.
Their record, however, comes with caveats: their wins have come against teams all sitting in the bottom half of the table. Inter’s projected points total has risen modestly from 13 to 17, and despite their perfect start, their title odds remain at four per cent — lower than Liverpool and Real Madrid, who have both shown more flaws.
Inter’s top-eight projection stands at 72 per cent, but a difficult remaining schedule begins with this trip to Madrid.
Atletico, currently on six points, have seen their elimination odds shrink from 27 to just four per cent and now look headed for the play-offs. With either Barcelona or Chelsea guaranteed to drop points, a win could catapult them from 17th into the top 10.
Atletico remaining fixtures: PSV (A), Galatasaray (A), Bodo/Glimt (H)
Inter remaining fixtures: Liverpool (H), Arsenal (H), Borussia Dortmund (A)
