The fifth meeting of the season between Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich could be crucial for Xabi Alonso’s team, who face a tough task after losing 3-0 in the first leg last week. Only four teams in UEFA Champions League history have managed to overturn a 3+ goal deficit from the first leg to progress, and Leverkusen aren’t entering this match with much confidence after a 2-0 defeat to Werder Bremen on Saturday, which also saw their star player Florian Wirtz injured.
Leverkusen could now lose three matches in a row for the first time since August 2022, before Alonso’s arrival, and with a large gap to league leaders Bayern in the Bundesliga, a loss would leave them with only the DFB-Pokal to play for. The odds are against them, with Opta giving them just a 4% chance of reaching their first UCL quarter-final since 2001/02. However, they will at least aim to put up a fight, having avoided defeat in all three of their previous home matches against Bayern under Alonso.
Adding to Leverkusen’s problems, Bayern suffered a surprising 3-2 defeat at home to Bochum, who took full advantage of playing against ten men for over half the game. With several key players rested, Bayern should be fresh as they aim to reach the quarter-finals of this competition for the 35th time, a record only Real Madrid has surpassed.
Bayern haven’t been at their best on the road in the UCL this season, already losing two away matches by a three-goal margin. Another loss like that could see them eliminated in the last 16 for just the second time since 2011. Bayern have also struggled to win multiple games in a single campaign against Leverkusen since 2020/21, so it could be a nervy night at the BayArena.
With Wirtz injured, Leverkusen’s Alejandro Grimaldo might need to take on more of the creative responsibilities, having contributed to three goals in his last six meetings with Bayern. Bayern’s Harry Kane, who scored twice in the first leg, needs just one more goal to become the first English player to score ten goals in a single UCL campaign.
Bayern have kept just one clean sheet in their last 12 UCL away games.
