Borussia Dortmund can secure a spot in the UEFA Champions League (UCL) last 16 for the third year in a row thanks to their impressive first leg win of 3-0 over Sporting CP in Portugal. Their chances of advancing are rated at a staggering 97.1% by Opta, and the only way for them to miss out is if they suffer a loss by three or more goals at home, which hasn’t happened since November 2023. The Black and Yellows have a history of success in knockout ties, having won all 11 previous occasions when they won the first leg away from home. While Dortmund’s recent home record may raise concerns, their narrow defeats (all by a single goal margin) are not a cause for worry.
On the other hand, Sporting CP’s young starting XI (average age of 24 years and 3 days) has not been able to make an impact in the UCL, making it likely that they will once again fall short of the last 16. Despite fielding a strong team in their recent league match (a 2-2 draw), it is clear that Sporting CP’s focus is on their domestic campaign. This is evident from new manager Rui Borges’ statement that they need to prioritize the “final stretch” of their league season. It is fortunate for them that they can consider this tie as already being out of their reach, especially considering their poor record of 12 losses in 14 away games against German teams in the UEFA.
Keep an eye on Karim Adeyemi, who has scored four goals in his last three UCL starts for Dortmund and five in his last seven appearances at the Signal Iduna Park. Sporting CP’s young talent Conrad Harder has also been in fine form, contributing to five goals (three goals and two assists) in his last five games. An interesting statistic to note is that Dortmund have scored an average of 2.2 goals per game in their last 15 UCL home matches (with 10 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss).
