After playing out a goalless draw against Everton, who Enzo Maresca considers “one of the best’ defensive teams in Europe, Chelsea extended their unbeaten run to 12 games (W9, D3) to remain second. Playing on Boxing Day for the first time since 2021, Chelsea will hope to continue their solid festive form in this West London derby against rivals Fulham, especially after winning their last three games directly following Christmas Day.
Despite the positives, Maresca’s consistent title race denial could be based on the fact no side since 2010 have sat in second place over Christmas with a lower points haul than their 35. Even so, a home return may boost Chelsea’s prospects as whilst they’ve kept just one Premier League clean sheet here this term, they haven’t lost here in league action since the opening day (W4, D3).
Just three points separated fifth and tenth over Christmas, and as a result of that pile-up, Fulham could yet end the year in the European places with a positive result. Doing so here is a big ask despite their solid recent form (W3, D5, L1), as not only are they the least successful of the four clubs in West London derbies (27% historical win rate), they have won just eight league H2Hs against Chelsea since the first such meeting of the sides in 1910 (D23, L47).
Edging closer to double figures in H2H wins will be easier said than done for Fulham boss Marco Silva, who has won just two of his ten career clashes against Chelsea (D2, L6), which includes defeats in four of five away games. But you cannot write Fulham off as their most recent Premier League trip saw them claim a point against league leaders Liverpool, thus extending their unbeaten league run on the road to four games (W1, D3).
Players to watch: No side has hit the woodwork more often in the Premier League than Chelsea’s 12, with Nicolas Jackson (Premier League: G9) contributing a quarter of that frustrating total. For Fulham, Alex Iwobi enters this on the back of four-goal contributions from his last six appearances (G3, A1), with his last three scoring appearances seeing him net the opener.
Hot stat: Of sides to play 2+ Premier League games as betting outsiders, only Newcastle (80%) have a stronger win/draw rate than Fulham (75% – W2, D4, L2)
