Ruud van Nistelrooy has always enjoyed his time at Old Trafford, a fact that will surely weigh on the mind of Leicester City’s manager as his side faces Manchester United in their FA Cup fourth-round clash on Friday.
As a player, the Dutchman netted 150 goals in under 200 starts during a remarkable five-year stint at United. His return last year as Erik ten Hag’s assistant coach saw him briefly step in as interim manager in October, leading the team to three wins and a draw in four matches, with an impressive goal tally of 11 scored and just three conceded.
Expectations were high when Van Nistelrooy took charge at Leicester, much like they were for Ruben Amorim at United. However, key metrics suggest both clubs have declined since his departure from Old Trafford.
Under Steve Cooper, Leicester struggled at both ends of the pitch. According to Opta, they had the lowest expected goals (xG) in the Premier League (13.72) and the fewest shots per game (9.8) before Cooper’s dismissal on November 24. Defensively, they had conceded the third-highest xG against (26.6), with only two teams letting in more goals (23) or allowing more shots per game (17.6). In almost all key statistics—including points per game (0.64 compared to Cooper’s 1.08) and xG—Leicester has regressed under Van Nistelrooy.
To compound their struggles, Leicester has not significantly improved tactically. Unlike United, where a new system offers some justification for inconsistency, Leicester has seen even less possession under Van Nistelrooy than Cooper. They remain heavily reliant on a low-block defensive approach and counterattacks spearheaded by the ageing Jamie Vardy.
Bright spots have been few. Even in one of Van Nistelrooy’s two league victories—a 3-1 win over West Ham—Leicester was thoroughly outplayed. West Ham registered 31 shots with an xG of 3.1, the highest in a losing effort in over seven years. Only inspired goalkeeping from Mads Hermansen and a string of missed opportunities saved Leicester from defeat. “It’s frustrating and hard to explain,” admitted then-West Ham manager Julen Lopetegui.
While some may argue that Leicester’s defensive resilience deserves praise, fortune played a significant role in their survival against West Ham.
Leicester’s Recruitment Failures
Van Nistelrooy is not solely to blame for Leicester’s decline. The club, under pressure from profitability and sustainability regulations, failed to reinforce key positions in January. Aside from selling Tom Cannon to Sheffield United for £10m, their only signing was Woyo Coulibaly, a backup right-back from Parma for £3m. In contrast, other struggling teams invested heavily—Wolves spent £42.6m, Ipswich £21.5m (including loan deals for Julio Enciso and Ben Godfrey), and Southampton £4.2m. Leicester’s squad remains thin, particularly at centre-back, in attack behind Vardy, and on the wings, where the absence of Abdul Fatawu since November has hurt their pace and creativity.
Amorim’s Challenges at United
Ruben Amorim’s tenure at United presents a more complex case. His efforts to implement a new tactical system have been hampered by fixture congestion, off-field distractions, and injuries, including a season-ending blow to Lisandro Martínez. However, a statistical comparison with Ten Hag paints a troubling picture. United have earned fewer league points per game under Amorim (1.07) than Ten Hag (1.22), conceded more goals per match, and created fewer shots on target.
Amorim has made tactical misjudgments, such as deploying Kobbie Mainoo as a false nine and persisting with Diogo Dalot at left wing-back in the recent home defeat to Crystal Palace. His media handling has also drawn scrutiny. With United almost as close to Leicester in the relegation zone as they are to a Europa League spot, the league campaign is effectively a lost cause. However, the broader narrative suggests United is undergoing a painful but necessary rebuild.
The Stakes for Friday’s Clash
United’s most viable paths to silverware and European qualification remain in the Europa League (which offers a Champions League place to its winner) and the FA Cup (whose victor qualifies for the Europa League). Friday’s tie is crucial to United’s season, and Amorim will hope Van Nistelrooy does not continue his history of thriving under the Old Trafford lights.
