The final round of Group F action at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup brings a high-stakes showdown between Mamelodi Sundowns and Fluminense, with both sides eyeing a place in the last 16. While the South African champions must win to stand any chance of progressing, a draw will be enough for Fluminense to book their place in the knockout rounds.
Sundowns enter the contest third in the group, following a narrow 4-3 defeat to Borussia Dortmund in a thrilling encounter. With their head-to-head record against Dortmund inferior, the South Africans must take all three points in this match to stand a chance of qualification. Even then, their progress will depend on Dortmund’s result against Ulsan. It’s unlikely to be a one-sided affair though—each of Sundowns’ last four games has been settled by a single-goal margin (W1, D1, L2).
Fluminense, last year’s Club World Cup runners-up, enjoy a more favourable position. A draw at the Hard Rock Stadium will be enough to see them through. They could still sneak through with a narrow defeat if Dortmund also lose by an equal or greater margin. However, with Renato Gaúcho’s side on an eight-game unbeaten run (W6, D2), they’ll be aiming to take matters into their own hands.
This marks the first ever meeting between the two clubs. It’s also Sundowns’ maiden encounter with a South American side. Fluminense, meanwhile, faced African opposition in 2023 when they defeated Egypt’s Al Ahly 2-0 in the semi-finals of that year’s competition.
Stat watch
- All of Sundowns’ last ten games have had matching half-time and full-time results (W7, D1, L2).
- Three of their four Club World Cup matches have produced at least two second-half goals.
- Fluminense have kept clean sheets in three of their last four matches (W3, D1).
- Remarkably, 29 of Fluminense’s last 31 goals in competitive action have come after the 25th minute.
Key players
For Sundowns, Lucas Ribeiro Costa has proven decisive, assisting the winner against Ulsan and scoring the opener against Dortmund, both in the first half. Fluminense’s attacking threat may come from Kevin Serna, who has scored early in two of the Brazilians’ last four outings.
Team news remains largely unchanged for Sundowns, while Fluminense will be without Yeferson Soteldo and are sweating on the fitness of Isaque and Riquelme Felipe.
With both teams under pressure but Fluminense only needing a draw, expect a cagey but competitive encounter. Sundowns have shown they can strike early, while Fluminense’s experience and second-half scoring prowess may be decisive. Given their unbeaten run and ability to manage tense fixtures, backing Fluminense to win, or at least avoid defeat, looks the safer bet.
