Italy face Norway knowing that only a highly unlikely win by nine goals or more would allow them to finish top of Group I. Norway have effectively already secured their place at the World Cup and have begun celebrating after their big 4-1 win over Estonia on Thursday.
Italy are almost certain to end up in the play-offs despite beating Moldova 2-0 in their last match, a result that extended their winning run to six games. After missing the last two World Cups due to play-off defeats, the Italians are desperate to build confidence under Gennaro Gattuso, who has started his tenure with five straight wins. Italy have scored 18 goals in those matches and have looked strong at the back too, keeping three home clean sheets in a row since losing to Germany in the Nations League in March.
Norway, meanwhile, have been superb throughout qualifying. They have won all seven of their matches, scoring 33 goals and conceding only four. Manager Ståle Solbakken, who played for Norway the last time they met Italy at a World Cup, returns to the San Siro hoping for a bit of personal revenge. His team have also been excellent away from home, winning their last four away games and scoring at least four goals in three of them.
Norway’s 3-0 win in June was their first victory over Italy since 2000, and only two of the last nine meetings between the sides have seen both teams score. Italy have been free-scoring under Gattuso, scoring three or more goals in four of his five matches in charge, while eight of Italy’s last ten competitive games have produced over 2.5 goals. Norway have also been ruthless, with nine of their last eleven wins coming by at least two goals, and they have scored three or more goals in eight of their last nine competitive matches.
Players to watch include Francesco Pio Esposito, who has scored twice in Italy’s last three matches and tends to strike after half-time. For Norway, Alexander Sørloth ended his eight-game goal drought with a brace against Estonia, and he also scored first in the reverse fixture against Italy in June. Italy are expected to rest Sandro Tonali as he is one booking away from suspension for the play-offs, while Norway have no new injury worries.
