With two remaining rounds of the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League (UCL) group stage, Atlético Madrid is on track to secure a spot in the knockout phase but is aiming for a place in the top-eight (W4, L2). A victory against Bayer Leverkusen, whom they trail by one point, would greatly benefit their cause as they seek to recover from a surprising 1-0 loss to Leganés in La Liga on Saturday.
This defeat was their first in any competition since late October (W15), and the team has only suffered one loss in their last 13 home European matches (W8, D4). Notably, two of their three most recent wins came against German opponents. Atlético Madrid has a strong record against Leverkusen, having never lost a home head-to-head encounter. However, four of those matches ended in a draw after 90 minutes (W1), indicating that this upcoming game could be closely contested.
As Leverkusen (W4, D1, L1) aim to maintain their position in the top-eight, they do so with the momentum of a 3-1 victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach in the Bundesliga, marking their 11th consecutive win in all competitions. Interestingly, Leverkusen now holds an impressive winning streak, outshining their hosts. Additionally, they have not been defeated in their last five encounters with Spanish teams (W3, D2).
Atlético will undoubtedly test that winning streak as the reigning Bundesliga champions have struggled to secure a victory in European games played in Spain since 2013/14 (D3, L4). Moreover, their poor head-to-head record in the Spanish capital could heavily impact Xabi Alonso’s team. Atlético has also faced difficulties on the road in this competition recently, managing to win only one of their last six UCL away matches (D2, L3).
Keep an eye on Ángel Correa, who has shown a knack for making an impact late in the game by scoring three times after the 80th minute in Atlético’s last three UCL fixtures. If Leverkusen wants to take control early on, Álejandro Grimaldo could be the key player, as he has scored within the first 35 minutes of two out of six European matches this season.
Interesting statistic: In three out of the last four head-to-head matches, there were more goals scored after half-time than before.
