As Belgium seeks to transition from their ‘golden generation’, they have faced challenges during this UEFA Nations League (UNL) cycle. The most realistic outcome appears to be a spot in a relegation play-off in League A. Only a victory will sustain their faint hopes of advancement, but they must overcome an Italian team they haven’t defeated in competitive internationals since May 1972 (D2, L4).
Their overall record doesn’t improve much when including friendly matches either (W4, D5, L16), though three victories did occur at home. This could serve as added incentive for Belgium’s head coach Domenico Tedesco, who was born in Italy himself, although motivation might not be the issue as his team has only secured one win in their last six matches across all competitions (D2, L3), adding pressure on his future prospects.
Italy approaches the match with confidence, aware that a draw will ensure their progression to the quarter-finals of this UNL cycle after an unbeaten start (W3, D1).
The only blemish in their record is a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture, despite playing with ten men for over 50 minutes. However, Luciano Spalletti’s team responded with determination by defeating Israel 4-1 to maintain their leadership at the top of the group.
The Azzurri are well-positioned to advance to the UNL knockout stages for the third consecutive cycle, largely due to their impressive record of only two losses during the league phase of the competition (W10, D8). This strength is also evident on the road, as Italy have triumphed in both away games in this UNL cycle, including a notable victory against France, continuing a series of four consecutive away wins in this tournament.
Players to watch: With Kevin De Bruyne absent, Romelu Lukaku is the only player remaining from the Belgium squad who started their last victory over Italy in November 2015. He is currently experiencing his longest international scoring drought since summer 2018, spanning four matches. Lukaku has netted 85 goals for his country, whereas the entire Italy squad has collectively scored just 47 goals, with Mateo Retegui contributing two of those in their recent UNL fixtures, including one against Belgium last month.
Interesting fact: In Belgium’s previous five home games in the UEFA Nations League, both teams found the back of the net.
