Starting the year 2025 on a positive note with three consecutive victories, Aston Villa may have believed that they had overcome their struggles from the latter part of 2024. However, their fortunes have taken a downturn with a three-match winless streak (drawn 2, lost 1), and their only loss came in the UEFA Champions League against Monaco last week (1-0). As a result, they have relinquished their hold on a top-eight position.
Although Aston Villa still have a chance to secure automatic qualification for the last-16 stage, Opta predicts that they have a 53% likelihood of progressing in the top-eight. Their fate remains uncertain. To maximize their chances, Villa understands the importance of securing a convincing victory against Celtic. Considering the recent track record of English teams hosting Scottish opponents in the European Cup/UCL (drawn 2, won 5), history suggests that Aston Villa is well-positioned to fulfill their end of the deal.
Celtic will enter this match with the advantage of having had some additional time for rest and recovery. Their scheduled game against Dundee over the weekend was postponed due to storm damage to their stadium. On the pitch, Celtic has been the dominant team as of late, having won five out of their last six games (with one draw). In order to have a realistic chance of being seeded for the knockout round play-offs, they will need to continue this winning streak.
Although Celtic’s place in the top-24 is already secure, securing a position within the 9th-16th range may prove challenging, especially considering their recent string of draws against English opponents. Based on historical data, it is likely that a draw will be the best outcome for Brendan Rodgers’ team in this match. In fact, Celtic has only won one out of their last 21 UEFA Champions League away games (with five draws and fifteen losses). However, it is worth noting that among all the English clubs Rodgers has faced, he has won more matches against Crystal Palace (10) than Aston Villa (9).
Players to keep an eye on: Aston Villa’s Morgan Rogers has taken 14 shots in this season’s UCL but has yet to find the back of the net, trailing only Milan’s Theo Hernández who has attempted 15 shots without scoring. Arne Engels from Celtic has scored his last two club goals while playing away and both have come from penalty kicks. Out of his seven club goals this season, six have been penalties.
Interesting statistic: In the UCL league phase, Celtic has committed only 65 fouls, second only to Manchester City who have committed 59 fouls.
