While the stakes are not as high, an encounter between Italy and France echoes the 2006 World Cup final. Both teams have already secured their places in the quarter-finals, with Italy currently holding the upper hand in leading the group after a 3-1 victory in their previous meeting. This result means that Italy will remain at the top if they avoid losing to France by a margin of two goals or more.
Italy’s recent performances suggest that achieving this should be straightforward, although their past five head-to-head encounters on home soil against France (two draws, three losses) tell a different story. However, the 1-0 away triumph over Belgium on Thursday provides optimism for ending this poor run, and their unbeaten record in UEFA Nations League home matches (four wins, six draws) indicates they have the capability to secure the top position in their group for the third consecutive UNL campaign.
France will be hoping to avoid that outcome, but based on their goalless draw with Israel on Thursday, they might fall short. The French press, L’Equipe, labelled the match as “boring”, yet manager Didier Deschamps is unlikely to be concerned about media opinions if his team manages to secure the top position, a challenge made more difficult without Kylian Mbappé.
However, all is not lost, as despite their lacklustre performance against Israel, France have actually secured victories in both of their away fixtures in this UNL cycle. It’s important to mention that only one of France’s historical away wins in the UNL was by a sufficient margin to ensure they would lead the group here. Moreover, considering they have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five such encounters, they are likely to face a challenging task.
Key players to monitor: Sandro Tonali, who found the net for Italy against Belgium with his first international goal, has also provided assists for Italy’s opening goals twice in this UNL season. Bradley Barcola scored within 13 seconds during the previous fixture, marking the quickest goal in UNL history. He is eager to make a strong impression after L’Equipe criticised his performance against Israel as “a display of rare inadequacy.”
Interesting statistic: Prior to their 1-0 victory over Belgium on Thursday, both teams had found the back of the net in Italy’s last six UNL matches.
