Italy’s hopes of reaching the 2026 FIFA World Cup have been revived thanks to back-to-back wins under new manager Gennaro Gattuso. Now, they aim to continue that momentum as they travel to face Estonia.
Estonia had a tough time in September, beginning with a heavy 5-0 defeat to Italy in qualifying. They followed that with a goalless draw in a friendly against Andorra, extending their run without scoring to three games. Hopes of reaching their first-ever major tournament appear slim, with the team having won just two of their last 12 matches. In that time, they’ve drawn two and lost eight, while also failing to score in three of their last four home games, losing three of them.
For Italy, the start of Gattuso’s reign could hardly have gone better. The 2006 World Cup winner saw his team score exactly five goals in each of his first two matches in charge. The Azzurri still trail group leaders Norway by six points, but with a game in hand, they remain hopeful of finishing top and avoiding the play-offs, the stage where they missed out on the last two World Cups. However, improvement away from home is needed, as Italy have conceded seven goals in just two away qualifiers so far. That said, the loss to Norway is their only away defeat since October 2023, with four wins and two draws during that time.
Italy have dominated Estonia in past meetings, winning all eight previous encounters while keeping clean sheets in six of them. Seven of those victories came by at least two goals, including last month’s 5-0 win.
Estonia have struggled to score at home, failing to find the net in nine of their last ten home defeats. Interestingly, seven of their last eight matches were level at half-time. Italy, on the other hand, have seen over 2.5 goals scored in ten of their last twelve games, though they’ve only managed one clean sheet in their last six away matches.
Rauno Sappinen is one of Estonia’s key attacking threats, with five goal contributions in his last six club games. His last three international goals all came in matches where both teams scored. For Italy, Mateo Retegui has been in excellent form under Gattuso, scoring twice and assisting four times in the new manager’s first two games. Both his goals came against Estonia, and five of his last seven goals for club and country have come after the 60th minute.
Estonia are expected to have a full squad available, while Italy will be without injured winger Mattia Zaccagni.
