A rematch of the 2011-12 UEFA Champions League final tops the billing on match day one as Bayern Munich and Chelsea meet in Bavaria.
Bayern have made a flying start to 2025-26, winning all five matches in all competitions, with two home victories by an aggregate 11–0. The German champions are well placed to continue their long-standing dominance at this stage of the competition, boasting the best win percentage in the league or group phase since 2003-04. They were unbeaten in sixteen successive home matches in the Champions League before last season’s quarter-final defeat to Inter at the Allianz Arena, and another slip looks unlikely on current form.
Chelsea return to the Champions League after two seasons away and remain unbeaten this term with two wins and two draws, though they were pegged back late in a 2–2 draw with Brentford on Saturday. Enzo Maresca’s side leave London for the first time this season but travel with confidence from recent international assignments, having won twelve of thirteen matches since their last Champions League appearance, a run that delivered both the Conference League and the FIFA Club World Cup.
The recent head-to-head picture tilts towards Bayern, who have won three of the last four meetings in this competition, with the only defeat coming on penalties in the 2011 12 final on this ground. Chelsea were beaten in both legs of the 2019 20 quarter-final, including a 4–1 reverse away.
Early season trends are clear. Bayern are averaging twenty shots per match across their first five fixtures and have scored in thirty-six of their last thirty-seven Champions League home games. Chelsea have lost three of their last five away matches in this competition without scoring, yet they have struck at least twice in eight of their last nine matches in all competitions, suggesting greater attacking punch under Maresca.
Personnel will matter. Manuel Neuer has won each of his last three meetings with Chelsea, and another victory would make him only the fourth player to reach one hundred Champions League wins. For Chelsea, Cole Palmer is the form threat with direct involvement in eight goals across his last eight international fixtures. Bayern remain without Jamal Musiala and Alphonso Davies long term, and Raphaël Guerreiro joined the injury list at the weekend. For Chelsea, João Pedro is a doubt after starting against Brentford while not fully fit.
Given Bayern’s fluency and firepower at home, the safer call points towards a home win, with Bayern to score over 2.5 goals a plausible angle for those seeking value.
