Crystal Palace head into the second leg of this UEFA Conference League semi-final holding a comfortable 3-1 advantage, with history firmly on their side. For Shakhtar Donetsk to go through, they would need to achieve something they have never done before in European competition.
A two-goal cushion should give Palace plenty of confidence, though a 3-0 Premier League defeat at the hands of Bournemouth on Sunday serves as a timely reminder not to take anything for granted. A repeat of that scoreline here would knock them out and deny them a European final appearance in their first continental campaign this century, though that looks unlikely given Palace have not lost any of their last five European home matches. Defensive solidity has been the cornerstone of their recent form at Selhurst Park, where they have gone seven games unbeaten in all competitions, keeping six clean sheets along the way.
Shakhtar arrive needing to pull off something of a miracle, though they did at least warm up for the occasion with a 2-1 win away at Dynamo Kyiv on Sunday. They will need a big victory just to take the tie to extra time, and history is firmly against them, having lost all six European ties in which they trailed by two goals after the first leg. They have shown they can get results on the road of late, winning five of their last seven away games, but winning by three or more goals away from home in Europe has proved beyond them on all but one occasion since the 2016/17 season.
Palace have won both of their meetings with Ukrainian opposition in the Conference League this season, while Shakhtar have not beaten an English side in Europe in their last six attempts. One pattern worth noting is that Palace have conceded eight of their 11 Conference League goals this season in the 15 minutes straight after half-time, while 16 of Shakhtar’s 20 goals in the competition this term have also come in the second half.
Jean-Philippe Mateta is a man in form at Selhurst Park, having scored his last nine Palace goals at home, with the last seven coming from either penalties or headers. For Shakhtar, Isaque Silva could be one to watch, having scored his last four goals away from home, all in the second half of games his side won comfortably.
Palace’s Chadi Riad picked up a knock at the weekend, as did Shakhtar’s Marlon, and both are doubts for this evening.
