Reigning European champions Real Madrid have a mountain to climb after a surprising 3-0 defeat to Arsenal in the first leg of their UEFA Champions League quarter-final. They returned to winning ways with a 1-0 win over Alavés at the weekend, ending a four-game winless run, but the match was marred by Kylian Mbappé’s early red card. Fortunately for Madrid, he will be available for the second leg.
The Spanish giants will need all their attacking power to turn this tie around. They’ve managed to overturn a first-leg away defeat 25 times in UEFA competitions, including in their last three attempts. However, their last three Champions League exits have come at the hands of Premier League teams, which adds extra pressure.
Arsenal, meanwhile, followed up their first-leg triumph with a 1-1 draw against Brentford. It wasn’t their best result, but it stretched their unbeaten run to nine games. With a place in their first UCL semi-final since 2009 on the line, Mikel Arteta’s team will be full of confidence, especially as they’ve won six of their last eight matches against Spanish sides.
Arsenal have a strong history of finishing the job after a home first-leg win, advancing in 18 out of 20 such ties. The two exceptions were against La Liga teams (Valencia in 2001 and Barcelona in 2011), but neither of those involved a three-goal lead like this one. The Gunners will also take heart from their famous 2006 win at the Bernabéu, thanks to a goal from Thierry Henry.
Vinícius Júnior has been deadly at home in the UCL, scoring six goals in his last five matches at the Bernabéu, five of them after half-time. Leandro Trossard has a habit of scoring late in away games, with goals in two of Arsenal’s last three UCL away matches, and in their recent league win at Everton.
Arsenal have not conceded more than one goal in any of their last nine UCL away games, letting in just one goal in eight of them.
