After dropping more points in the Premier League over the weekend, Arsenal’s best chance of winning a trophy this season now lies in the UEFA Champions League. They’ve reached the quarter-finals for the second year in a row, and even though they’ve only won two of their eight previous ties at this stage, statistics from Opta suggest they are slight favourites to beat current champions Real Madrid.
One reason for this is their strong Champions League form at the Emirates Stadium. Arsenal haven’t lost a home game in the competition since returning last season, with eight wins and two draws. They’ve also had good results against Spanish sides recently, winning five of their last seven matches, and they came out on top the only time they faced Madrid in a two-legged tie back in 2006. If they avoid defeat again, they would become only the second English team to go unbeaten in their first three meetings with Real Madrid in the competition.
Real Madrid arrive in London after a surprising 2-1 home defeat to Valencia on Saturday, which has put pressure on their title hopes in Spain. But the Champions League is where they usually perform best. Since 2017, they’ve faced English clubs 23 times in the competition, winning 11, drawing five, and losing six. Two of those wins came against Manchester City earlier this season.
Madrid have an excellent record in the quarter-finals, progressing in each of their last 12 appearances at this stage. They’ve also won their last three Champions League away matches outside of Madrid, scoring three goals in each. They haven’t lost the first leg of a knockout tie in their last eight attempts, but that run may be tested here, especially as their last three exits from the competition all came against English clubs.
Bukayo Saka could return to Arsenal’s starting line-up after injury. He has scored eight Champions League goals, with most of them coming at home, including one in last season’s quarter-final against Bayern Munich. For Madrid, Kylian Mbappé has a strong record against English teams, scoring ten goals in 16 matches, including four this season against Manchester City.
Arsenal have lost five of their last six two-legged ties against Spanish teams.
