AC Milan’s European aspirations suffered a significant setback in midweek, as their 2-1 defeat to rivals Bologna left them three points adrift of sixth place – the final European qualification spot. Next up is a Lazio side who begin the round in fifth, with the Rossoneri aiming to halt their two-match losing streak in the league while also seeking to avoid three consecutive Serie A defeats for the first time since February 2023.
Lazio may well be ideal opponents for Milan, given that the Rossoneri have won six of the last eight head-to-head encounters (D1, L1), including the last five meetings at the San Siro. However, their recent home league form has been less dominant; while they remain unbeaten in eight Serie A matches at home, they have only secured victory in three of those (D5). More concerning still is their poor record this season against teams starting this round above them in the table, having won just one such fixture (D3, L5).
The Biancocelesti fall into that category as they continue their push for a top-four finish and a return to the UEFA Champions League. Having competed in Europe’s premier club competition as recently as last season, Lazio have two possible routes back – through their league position or by winning the UEFA Europa League.
Their European campaign resumes with a last-16 tie against Viktoria Plzeň shortly after this fixture, which could prove to be a distraction. Nonetheless, they have been strong on their travels, winning six of their last nine away league matches (D1, L2). However, four defeats in their last five away games against teams currently in the top half suggest they must approach this match with caution. A 2-0 defeat at this venue to Inter in midweek Coppa Italia action further underlines their struggles on the road against higher-calibre opponents.
Players to watch: Milan’s Rafael Leão found the net in midweek, scoring his fourth opening goal in his last five appearances. Remarkably, however, he has yet to score at home in Serie A this season. Meanwhile, Pedro tends to make his mark later in matches, with five of his last six goals for Lazio coming after half-time.
