As the Serie A season enters its final stretch, the battle for the Scudetto remains fiercely contested between Inter, Napoli and Atalanta. However, if all three teams finish level on points at the end of Matchday 38, Atalanta will be excluded from the decisive championship play-off due to the head-to-head standings, leaving only Inter and Napoli to fight for the title.
Following the conclusion of direct clashes between the three contenders, the current standings in the head-to-head mini-league give Inter an advantage with 8 points, followed by Napoli with 5 points and Atalanta with 3 points. This means that in the case of a three-way tie, Inter and Napoli will qualify for the Scudetto play-off, while Atalanta will be eliminated based on their inferior record in direct encounters.
Inter secured this advantage by drawing twice against Napoli (both 1-1) and winning both matches against Atalanta (4-0 and 2-0). Napoli, meanwhile, earned their five points from two draws with Inter and a victory against Atalanta (3-2 in Bergamo). Atalanta’s only success in these crucial head-to-head games came in a 3-0 home win against Napoli but suffered two losses against Inter, leaving them with the lowest tally in the mini-league.
With this scenario in mind, should Inter and Napoli finish level on points, a single-match play-off will take place to determine the Serie A champion. Currently, the venue for this potential decider would be San Siro, as the teams’ head-to-head results are identical, and the next tiebreaker, goal difference in the overall league standings, favours Inter (+38 compared to Napoli’s +22). Additionally, Inter have scored more goals in Serie A (65) compared to Napoli (45), reinforcing their advantage.
If Inter and Atalanta were to finish level on points, the play-off would also be held at San Siro, while a Napoli-Atalanta title decider would be played in Bergamo, as Atalanta hold the head-to-head advantage over Napoli. The play-off will be a one-off match, with no extra time in the event of a draw after 90 minutes. Instead, the title will be decided directly by a penalty shootout.
As Serie A enters its final rounds, all eyes will be on these three teams as they push for the title. Inter remain in control of their destiny, while Napoli and Atalanta must maximise their results and hope for favourable outcomes in other fixtures. If a play-off does become necessary, it would mark a historic moment in Italian football, as this would be the first Scudetto decider of its kind under the current rules.
