Every FIFA World Cup seems to produce an unexpected star away from the football pitch. In 2026, one of those unlikely celebrities was Bear, a 12-week-old golden retriever-poodle cross belonging to New Zealand goalkeeper Oli Sail.
Bear’s task was simple: predict the outcome of New Zealand’s opening World Cup match against Iran during an appearance on the country’s Breakfast television programme. Sail gently encouraged his puppy to choose between two bowls marked with the competing nations’ flags, telling him it was his moment to shine.
The debut, however, did not quite go to plan.
Rather than confidently selecting a winner, Bear wandered around the studio, briefly inspected the ball, ignored his owner’s instructions and, to the amusement of everyone watching, relieved himself on the studio floor. The presenters burst into laughter while Sail could only ask those nearby not to step on the unexpected accident.
Eventually, Bear was placed back in front of the bowls and made his choice. The presenters interpreted it as a prediction that New Zealand would beat Iran, suggesting it might take a dramatic late winner or a spirited comeback after adversity.
Reality proved rather different.
Although New Zealand twice took the lead during the match, they were ultimately held to a 2-2 draw, bringing Bear’s brief career as a football fortune teller to an abrupt end.
Bear was not alone in attempting to forecast the tournament.
In Brazil, Ritinha, a sandbar shark living in an aquarium in Rio de Janeiro, selected her country to defeat Morocco in their opening fixture. Instead, Brazil were held to a 1-1 draw. She redeemed herself by correctly predicting victory over Haiti in the following match, but by then much of her credibility had disappeared.
Elsewhere, zoos and aquariums around the world embraced the growing tradition of animal predictions.
Among the most successful was Ashanti, an African elephant at Guadalajara Zoo in Mexico, one of the tournament’s host cities. She accurately predicted Mexico’s victories in each of their opening four matches before finally making an incorrect choice ahead of the Round of 16 clash with England.
Despite those respectable records, none of the 2026 contenders came close to matching the fame achieved by one remarkable octopus sixteen years earlier.
The legend of Paul the Octopus
When football supporters think of animal World Cup predictions, one name stands above every other: Paul the Octopus.
His rise to worldwide fame came during the 2010 World Cup in South Africa—a tournament remembered not only for Siphiwe Tshabalala’s spectacular opening goal, the constant soundtrack of vuvuzelas and Shakira’s Waka Waka, but also for one of football’s most extraordinary side stories.
At the Sea Life aquarium in Oberhausen, Germany, Paul was presented with two transparent boxes before each German match. Each contained a mussel and displayed the flag of one of the competing teams. Whichever box he opened first was considered his prediction.
The idea itself was nothing new. Similar promotional events had been organised before.
The difference was that Paul kept getting it right.
He correctly predicted Germany’s victories over Australia and Ghana during the group stage but truly caught the public’s attention by forecasting their surprise defeat to Serbia. Aquarium staff also pointed out that Paul had accurately predicted five of Germany’s seven matches during UEFA Euro 2008.
As Germany prepared to face England in the Round of 16, the story spread rapidly.
Germany’s Bild newspaper helped propel Paul into the spotlight, while British tabloids jokingly branded him a traitor after learning he had reportedly been born at the Sea Life centre in Weymouth, England, before being transferred to Germany in 2008.
The jokes soon stopped.
Germany defeated England 4-1, exactly as Paul had predicted, and overnight he became one of the tournament’s biggest attractions.
A worldwide media sensation
Successive correct predictions transformed a local marketing campaign into a global phenomenon.
Journalists from across the world descended on the Oberhausen aquarium, eager to witness Paul’s next selection. Television crews broadcast his predictions live, photographers crowded around his tank and newspapers eagerly awaited each decision.
For those running the aquarium, the attention quickly exceeded anything they had imagined.
Former marketing manager Tanja Munzig later recalled that what began as a light-hearted publicity exercise soon became something much bigger. Football supporters invested genuine emotion in Paul’s forecasts, celebrating when he favoured their country and reacting with frustration whenever he predicted defeat.
Ahead of Germany’s quarter-final against Argentina, anticipation reached another level.
Dozens of reporters waited as Paul slowly approached the two boxes. After more than an hour, he eventually selected Germany.
Celebrations broke out among the assembled journalists, but the reaction elsewhere was far less welcoming.
In Argentina, one television chef jokingly suggested catching and cooking the octopus, while the aquarium reportedly received numerous hostile emails from disappointed supporters. Security around Paul’s enclosure was increased as a precaution.
Germany then defeated Argentina 4-0, further strengthening Paul’s extraordinary reputation.
As his perfect run continued, even those working with him began wondering whether there could be another explanation.
Thomas Reinecke, the public relations adviser involved in creating the campaign, admitted staff experimented with different positions for the boxes and flags to determine whether colours or placement influenced Paul’s choices.
They found no evidence of manipulation.
According to Reinecke, Paul’s remarkable record came down to nothing more than extraordinary luck.
Munzig agreed, noting that one incorrect prediction early in the tournament would almost certainly have ended the story before it truly began. Instead, each successful forecast attracted even greater worldwide attention.
Science weighs in
Paul’s success even attracted interest from the scientific community.
Dr Jennifer Mather, a comparative psychologist at the University of Lethbridge in Canada and an expert on octopus behaviour, found herself repeatedly asked to explain the phenomenon.
She was quick to dismiss the idea that Paul possessed any genuine ability to predict football results.
Octopuses, she pointed out, know nothing about the World Cup and cannot even distinguish colours, making it highly unlikely that the national flags influenced his decisions.
Instead, she suggested several possible explanations.
Paul may have responded to subtle chemical differences between the containers or the mussels inside them. He could also have been reacting to unconscious cues from his handlers, similar to the famous “Clever Hans” effect, where animals appear to solve problems by reading human body language.
His own feeding behaviour may also have played a role, with curiosity and habit combining to influence which box he approached first.
From a statistical perspective, Paul’s achievements were remarkable but not impossible.
Choosing correctly between two boxes five consecutive times carries odds of roughly one in 32. Given that numerous animals around the world were making similar predictions, statisticians argued it was inevitable that one would eventually produce an exceptional streak.
Public fascination, however, continued to grow.
Supporters increasingly based bets on Paul’s selections, while several bookmakers even adjusted their odds after his predictions became public.
By the time Germany reached the semi-finals, Paul’s choices had become must-watch television, with millions around the world waiting to see which box the famous octopus would open next.
Paul’s most controversial prediction came before Germany’s semi-final against Spain.
As television cameras broadcast the moment live, the octopus ignored the German box and instead selected Spain. The decision stunned the journalists gathered around his tank and disappointed German supporters hoping his flawless run would continue in their favour.
A day later, Carles Puyol’s decisive header secured Spain a 1-0 victory, proving Paul correct once again.
He then accurately predicted Germany would defeat Uruguay in the third-place play-off before selecting Spain to overcome the Netherlands in the World Cup final. Andrés Iniesta, whose extra-time goal secured Spain’s first world title, even referenced Paul during his post-match celebrations.
By the end of the tournament, Paul had correctly predicted all eight matches involving Germany, as well as the final.
Statistically, such a sequence carried odds of approximately one in 256. Bookmakers estimated that anyone backing all eight of Paul’s predictions with a modest $10 accumulator would have earned around $1,400 in profit.
His remarkable success transformed him from an aquarium attraction into an international celebrity.
From aquarium resident to global icon
As Paul’s popularity exploded, commercial offers flooded into the Oberhausen aquarium.
Chris Davis, who was asked to manage the octopus’ growing media profile on behalf of Sea Life’s parent company, Merlin Entertainments, recalled receiving enquiries from businesses around the world hoping to feature Paul in advertising campaigns.
Among the proposals were offers for newspaper advertisements, merchandising opportunities and promotional appearances.
One Russian bookmaker reportedly attempted to purchase Paul outright, repeatedly increasing its offer beyond €100,000. The aquarium rejected every approach, insisting its most famous resident was not for sale.
Paul’s fame also extended beyond commercial partnerships.
The Spanish town of O Carballiño, famous for its annual octopus festival, named him an honorary citizen, while his reported English origins even saw him appointed as an ambassador for England’s unsuccessful bid to host the 2018 FIFA World Cup.
Looking back, those involved in the campaign described almost every day as bringing another unbelievable development.
What had started as a simple publicity stunt had become one of football’s most memorable cultural stories.
Questions over Paul’s true identity
At the height of his fame, however, an unexpected controversy threatened to overshadow the story.
Conservationist Verena Bartsch claimed the famous octopus had actually been rescued from a fisherman’s trap off the Italian coast only months before the World Cup and had reached Oberhausen via another German aquarium.
Sea Life strongly rejected those allegations.
The aquarium insisted Paul had arrived from its Weymouth branch in England in 2008 and was the same octopus that had previously predicted matches during the European Championship.
Years later, uncertainty still surrounds the issue.
One former aquarium employee admitted Bartsch’s claims appeared plausible, pointing out that common octopuses rarely survive in captivity for much longer than two years.
Public relations adviser Thomas Reinecke later revealed he had been told that the original Paul may have died between Euro 2008 and the 2010 World Cup before being quietly replaced by another octopus.
Even so, he acknowledged that conflicting explanations existed both inside and outside the organisation.
Sea Life later stated that, after so many years, none of the staff directly involved with Paul’s campaign remained at the aquarium, making it impossible to clarify the story.
Former Weymouth aquarist Matt Fuller also questioned whether the World Cup sensation was truly the same octopus that had originally left England.
While unable to confirm either version, he suggested replacing an animal after its death would not have been unusual, particularly given the sensitivity surrounding such announcements.
For former marketing manager Tanja Munzig, however, Paul’s origins were ultimately irrelevant.
She believed the octopus became extraordinary because of the emotions he inspired rather than where he had come from.
Fame beyond football
Paul’s popularity wasn’t universally welcomed.
Following Germany’s victory over Argentina, some supporters reacted angrily to his predictions, while bookmakers in Kazakhstan reportedly complained that his remarkable accuracy had reduced their profits as increasing numbers of bettors followed his selections.
The phenomenon even reached international politics.
Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reportedly criticised the fascination surrounding Paul, describing both the octopus and the worldwide attention he attracted as symbols of Western superstition and cultural decline.
Yet none of the criticism slowed his popularity.
Families continued visiting the Oberhausen aquarium in large numbers, eager to see the world’s most famous octopus for themselves.
His image appeared on cuddly toys, books, commemorative coins, games and advertising campaigns. According to those involved, much of the revenue generated by those commercial partnerships was donated to wildlife conservation projects.
Interest also came from several major international companies hoping to work with Paul, underlining just how valuable his worldwide profile had become.
A farewell to football’s most famous octopus
Only three months after the World Cup final, Paul’s extraordinary story came to an end.
In October 2010, aquarium staff found him dead in his tank. There were no suspicious circumstances, with officials explaining that octopuses naturally have relatively short lifespans.
News of his death prompted an emotional response from supporters around the world.
Visitors left flowers and handwritten tributes outside the aquarium, while many travelled to Oberhausen simply to pay their respects.
In January 2011, Sea Life unveiled a permanent memorial featuring a large octopus resting on top of a football decorated with national flags. Inside stood a golden urn shaped like an octopus lifting the FIFA World Cup trophy, containing Paul’s ashes.
The aquarium also created “Paul’s Corner”, displaying newspaper front pages, photographs and memorabilia documenting one of football’s most unusual success stories.
Officials announced they would never appoint another football-predicting octopus, describing Paul as impossible to replace.
Years later, however, the memorial quietly disappeared from the aquarium.
Journalists visiting Oberhausen during Euro 2024 found no trace of the monument. The German Football Museum in Dortmund later confirmed it now houses Paul’s golden urn alongside newspaper clippings documenting his remarkable rise to fame, although the location of the larger memorial remains unknown.
An unforgettable legacy
More than a decade after his death, Paul continues to occupy a unique place in football folklore.
Every major international tournament brings fresh attempts by zoos, aquariums and broadcasters to discover the next great animal predictor, whether puppies, elephants, sharks or gorillas.
Yet none has captured the public imagination quite like the octopus from Oberhausen.
Even during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, television presenters continued referencing “El Pulpo Paul” whenever predictions were discussed, acknowledging that no successor has ever matched his extraordinary impact.
Whether there was one Paul or two may never be conclusively established.
What is beyond dispute, however, is that a simple aquarium octopus became one of the most recognisable figures of the 2010 World Cup, uniting millions of football supporters through a story that was equal parts sport, curiosity and global entertainment.
More than any prediction he ever made, that remains Paul’s greatest legacy.
