One of the most extraordinary World Cup qualifying scenarios could see San Marino, UEFA’s smallest and lowest-ranked nation, benefit from losing their final qualifier against Romania next month.
San Marino, long considered the minnows of European football, have lost all seven of their matches in Group H of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers, conceding 32 goals and scoring just once. Predominantly made up of semi-professional players, Roberto Cevoli’s team sit bottom of the group with zero points.
Yet, despite this dismal campaign, San Marino’s 2024/25 UEFA Nations League success has opened an unlikely route to the World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico. Last year, the tiny republic made history by topping Group D1 with seven points from four games against Gibraltar and Liechtenstein, securing promotion to League C and placing themselves in contention for one of UEFA’s play-off spots.
How the Scenario Works
Twelve of the 16 UEFA play-off spots will go to the second-placed teams in each qualifying group. The remaining four will be allocated to the best-ranked UEFA Nations League group winners who have not already qualified.
Romania, who won their Nations League Group C1 with maximum points, currently sit third in Group H, three points behind Bosnia and Herzegovina. If Romania overtake Bosnia and finish second, they would claim a play-off place through qualifying, which in turn would free up a Nations League play-off spot.
In this bizarre twist, San Marino would actually benefit if Romania beat them convincingly in their final group match. By helping Romania secure second place, San Marino would improve their own chances of being one of the four Nations League group winners to reach the play-offs.
This scenario would set up a remarkable opportunity for San Marino: two knockout matches against higher-ranked opponents, with a place at the 2026 World Cup on the line.
One of Football’s Great Underdog Stories
San Marino’s footballing history has largely been defined by heavy defeats and rare moments of joy, their first competitive win came only last year, more than three decades after their first official match. A play-off place would represent an unprecedented achievement and one of the greatest underdog stories in international football.
However, this dream could end quickly if Bosnia defeat Romania on 15 November. That result would eliminate the specific Nations League pathway that San Marino hopes to exploit.
While Malta’s campaign in Group F has not involved such dramatic permutations, this scenario highlights how UEFA’s qualification format can produce unexpected opportunities, even for smaller nations. Malta, like San Marino, has also relied on Nations League results in recent years to keep qualification hopes alive longer into the campaign.
With 48 teams set to participate in the 2026 World Cup, including 16 from Europe, San Marino’s improbable pathway shows just how unpredictable international football can be.
