Iraq could yet find themselves at the centre of one of the most extraordinary World Cup scenarios in recent memory, with growing uncertainty surrounding Iran’s place at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Iran’s sports minister, Ahmad Donyamali, said this week that the national team will not participate in the tournament, but FIFA has still not confirmed an official replacement or announced the next step.
The situation remains fluid because, despite the minister’s remarks, Iran have not formally completed a withdrawal process recognised by FIFA. That has left world football’s governing body weighing its options ahead of a tournament that will be hosted by the United States, Mexico and Canada from June 11 to July 19.
Under FIFA’s regulations, the governing body has broad discretion over how to deal with the withdrawal of a qualified team. That means there is no automatic rule saying the next Asian side must take Iran’s place, even though Iraq have emerged as one of the countries being discussed as a possible solution. Reuters reported that FIFA could even decide not to replace Iran at all, depending on timing, logistics and the wider political context.
Iraq are already due to feature in the inter-confederation playoff path later this month, with their match in Mexico complicated by travel disruption caused by the regional conflict. Reuters reported earlier this week that Iraq coach Graham Arnold called for the playoff to be postponed because of the travel shutdown affecting his side.
That is where the speculation has intensified. If Iran’s withdrawal were to become official before the playoff process is completed, Iraq could potentially be moved directly into the World Cup finals, while another team, such as the United Arab Emirates, could be brought into the playoff bracket. At this stage, however, that remains only one of several possible outcomes and not an official FIFA ruling.
There is also no shortage of political contradiction around the issue. On March 11, FIFA president Gianni Infantino said U.S. President Donald Trump welcomed Iran’s participation at the World Cup, yet on March 12, Reuters reported Trump saying it was not appropriate for Iran to take part for their own safety, despite adding that the team was welcome. That underlines just how sensitive and unpredictable the matter has become.
For now, FIFA appear likely to wait before making any definitive announcement. Until Iran’s status is formally settled, Iraq’s hopes of a direct route to the finals remain alive, but only as a possibility rather than a confirmed outcome. What is already clear is that a football issue which once seemed unthinkable is now one of the biggest developing stories ahead of the 2026 World Cup
